Dr. Mikio Ito
Department of Economics, Theoretical Econometrics
Dear Professor Ito,
I am writing this letter to explain my motivation in attending Keio University and study Theoretical Economics. I would be extremely grateful if you could give this a thought.
Abstract – Why do we still suffer from economic crisis when nations are so established, and would there be another one soon? Back in 2007, a seemingly successful mortgage market collapsed when investment bank Lehman brothers filed bankruptcy. Background of that was, hedge funds and investment banks sold too many mortgage backed assets which became short of real value when housing prices started to go down in 2007. Where everything is digital and far from tangible, I wonder if we would repeat the same mistake anytime soon.
Question – Do companies such as crypto currency, investment banks and payment apps, are they dealing with secure assets? And having a chain of small margin and low interest businesses, isn’t this a risk to potentially cause another crisis?
Argument – In general, trade conflicts between U.S. and China, Japan and SouthKorea, Middle East and Brexit have made it difficult to plan a year for many big firms across the globe. Investment banks haven’t had much to rely on in terms of secure investment these days and movement of crypto currency is adding insecurity to it, which is crushing the wealthy people. Also, adoption of cashless payment tools is diminishing the interest of local businesses and affecting the middle class. In addition, central banks have cut interest rate in the last decade and it gives them very little room to play once any of these mentioned insecurities burst.
Findings – According to the world finance review, combination of automation of jobs and low margin rather superficial businesses will affect job security and hit the millenials plus their consumer confidence really hard in the next 2 years. As traditional businesses stagnate, digitalization is providing companies opportunities to extract margin from each other out of thin air, while companies expense on digital assets such as data is adding burden. These predictions are easy to make, and each economic crisis was avoidable. However, priorities of decision makers at that time stopped them from taking measures.
Conclusion – Despite a number of studies on economic crisis, it is clear that politicians and decision makers have other diplomatic priorities and it is possible another crisis slips right through it. It would be very important for me to research what recent trends indicate and validate necessary methods to stop the next crisis. I look forward to hearing from you soon.
*“Monopoly and General Equilibrium,” Keio Economic Studies, vol.10, No.2,1983 *The Financial and Economic Crisis and Developing Countries,Bruno Gurtner, Translated by Jacqueline Gartmann, p. 189-213